Resilient Terror: When the “Global War on Terrorism” was declared after Al Qaeda’s brazen 2001 attack on the United States, many experts pointed out that it takes an average of two decades to defeat an insurgency. We are only halfway through that time period. And the insurgencies on which that analysis was based were all geographically defined, e.g. the Moro Uprising in the early 20th-Century southern Philippines.
A few years ago the US government and some outside observers were declaring victory was in sight, as Al Qaeda’s top leadership and mid-level leadership was significantly reduced through a combination of drone-strikes and special operations.
That assessment has changed. Despite the death of Osama bin Laden, Islamist terrorism appears to be on the rebound, spreading to more regions and spawning ever more groups. While core Al Qaeda may indeed remain physically damaged and its ability to launch independent operations seems impeded, the many affiliate groups popping up more than make up for this. And it should be remembered that Al Qaeda – literally “The Base” or figuratively “The Headquarters” – began as a clearing house for coordinating and encouraging terrorist operations by like-minded but less-well organized fanatics. In this light, Al Qaeda’s central concept and “brand” remain dynamic and dangerous.
